Flash is not going to die (just yet)

will Jobs stop trying to kill Flash? HTML5 is a poor substitute at present:

1. It's WAY slower. Javascript is interpretted and therefore slow. Alright, so Flash bytecode is also interpreted, but in it's half-pre-compiled state the optimised Flash player can crank out a much better frame rate. I made an HTML tester app here http://www.gktvs.com/html5/raycast/ to see how quickly it could handle a real simple 3D game. Not bad on my MacBook Pro, but try it on an iPhone... Can't wait to test this out on an iPad too

2. Source code cannot be hidden. With HTML 5 everything you do is open source, whether you like it or not. Therefore, if you're doing an expensive project there is no way of protecting your code from getting nicked. (note: I like Open Source, but some of my clients will not)

3. It's uncompressed. All of the code, pictures etc get delivered in their raw form, whereas flash compresses the heck out of everything

4. It has no sensible alternative toolkit. The Flash toolkit is amazing - to build complex animations in HTML5 is going to take a LOT MORE TIME (I estimate at least 3x the build costs)

5. It can't keep up with new features. Being an open standard, HTML will take longer to innovate, and Flash will always be able to introduce new features faster

6. Compatibility will keep sucking for a while. HTML 5 is not going to be a viable option for developers as the number of legacy browsers out there is huge - and IE6's resistance to death shows that this will continue to be a problem. The most up to date Flash Player works in IE6.

7. HTML 5 offers no sound control. If you've got a space-ship and you want a shoot noise when it fires - and EXACTLY when it fires - that's a pretty fundamental requirement to a game "feeling" good.

I would really like to use HTML 5's Canvas, Open GL etc. So as a developer I say, hmmm I could spend 3 times as much time (and money, if I'm paying someone else to do it) to reach 65% of my audience with a slower app that will take longer to download and can be stolen.

The trade off? It'll work on an iPhone / iPad.

When will Mr.Jobs get off his ideological podium? Did someone at Adobe steal his lover?

UPDATE : Here's some more analysis of what Flash does that HTML5 doesn't. However, there are moves within the JS community (mainly driven by iPad/iPhone support) that solve some of these hurdles... of particular note are Smokescreen - which is a basic JS based flash player(!) and SoundManager which is providing a half-decent audio option for your HTML5 app.

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